Post GE13 political scenarios

Part 2.

I will answer by way of an article the comment sent by Orang Kampung on my previous article. Hopefully it will be done in a few days.

For now, as I promised I want to clear off the second installment of my article on this topic. In that article, I suggested that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has to step in in the interest of the country.

When I wrote the first part, I was serious. I said Anwar does a Sivaji the Boss stunt. Like in one of the Tamil Movies, he hurled a knife towards an oncoming speeding bullet. The knife slices the bullet into two. One hits UMNO and Najib. The other hits BN. the knife on its own momentum, hits Anwar’s former mentor turned number 1 nemesis, Dr Mahathir. Anwar gets his revenge after all. He vanquishes his political enemies.

Who is Mack the Knife? (Sung by Louis Satchmo Armstrong)

Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear

And it shows them pearly white

Just a jackknife has old MacHeath, babe

And he keeps it, ah, out of sight

Ya know when that shark bites with his teeth, babe

Scarlet billows start to spread

Fancy gloves, oh, wears old MacHeath, babe

So there's never, never a trace of red

Except here the knife is symbolism. Who is Mack the knife? In about 2 months’ time Anwar may perhaps be a special guest to the government at Bamboo River. So physically he may not be there jumping up and down at the Palace gates. Not he, but a trusted person waves the paper that contains the list of MPs who backs him as the PM. He will insist, the choice of PM can be done this way, since precedence has been created in Perak. The MPs whose names are in the list waved are also at the gates. They all have travelled in buses provided free by businessmen eager to ingratiate themselves to the new rulers of Malaysia. But that person who probably has no stature and standing is refused entry. The AG who is inside in audience with the King in the presence of the Chief Secretary of the government informs the King, the test of support of the majority of MPs must be tested in a parliamentary sitting. So, the paper waved is useless unless parliament sits.

The Agong for the first time will be truly tested. The country cannot afford to not have a constitutionally established government. He will need to use his discretion to decide, who he and his brother rulers regard as the person who has the credibility and support to form the next government. The interest of the country now overrides anything else. He will only see the person whom he thinks command all round respect.

Anwar may have underestimated the technicalities of forming a new government. He can’t bulldoze his way around and does an Arab Spring or whatever consisting of a series of street demonstrations and the like. He must now realize, his earthly salvation lies in the hands of other people.

The big 3- PKR, PAS and DAP must direct themselves to this possibly. They must collectively address the issue who is their collective leader, the person with the stature, the experience and who possesses sufficient credibility to become PR’s leader.

Anwar and PKR must acknowledge the bigger picture. His salvation may indeed depend on this humbling reality. In the absence of Anwar, who shall be the next PM? Would Azmin fit the bill? Despite being the PKR number 2, public perception is he is still Anwar’s special assistant. Raw untested and even impetuous.  I don’t think PAS and DAP accept Azmin as PM.

PAS leaders may have the moral credibility or even the secular skills to govern a modern secular state- but will be undermined by the image of conservatism. That image, by way of unsophisticated reasoning, conjures yet another image of a nation forced to slide back on the scales of progress. DAP is a political realist. With 65% of the population here being made up of Malays, DAP accepts the impossibility of having a non-Malay as PM.

After GE13, the 3 of them will sit down to negotiate the details. Anwar can’t force the issue since, although a secular and progressive party, between them, PKR does not command the bigger number of seats. PKR can’t do it alone- they need PAS and DAP.

When push comes to shove, everyone must be realist. Can a person who probably is in jail become a PM? Can a person with an image problem be PM? We will be defending a person who is stung by accusations of all sorts of moral depravities all of which suggests moral weaknesses. That alone will eat away Anwar’s credibility at this time around. He has to take a sabbatical to recuperate.