Mutiny in Kedah

Some people asked me about what is happening in Kedah. Mutinous UMNO division heads or their deputies held a press conference to declare they have lost confidence in Mukhriz Mahathir. They urged UMNO to intervene and dismiss Mukhriz Mahathir.

It is a mutiny. To me, they are doing this because Najib asked them to. Nothing moves without the endorsement from the 2.6 billionaire. After this he will instruct the UMNO state assembly members to do the same.

Obviously they don’t have the support of the UMNO aduns as the moment. As someone observed, that is why they went to the press to announce a for the public consumption political lynching.

First UMNO will dismiss Mukhriz as Ketua Perhubungan. Then ask the UMNO state assembly members to abandon Muhriz.

UMNO can inflict harm on Mukhriz in his capacity as Ketua Perhubungan UMNO. It is a party position. The MB on the other hand, is chosen as he has the majority support in the state assembly.  If Kedah UMNO wants to remove Mukhriz as MB, they can pay state assembly members to cross over to join UMNO state assembly members (sams) and remove Mukhriz. In this case,they can ignore the opposition sams because UMNO already has the majority.

They can reject Mukriz’s claims that he is MB of the people. Mukriz's statement to that effect has no relevance at the moment. The people elected him as a state assembly member. Sams from his party chose him to be MB. They are also the same who can remove him. They must state their preference in a session of the state assembly.

What UMNO does to its own ought not to be our concern.  It’s an UMNO party internal affair. The practice of political cannibalism within UMNO is a normal affair. It’s all in a day’s work.

Suppose all the 192 UMNO division heads in Malaysia convened a press conference and announced they have lost confidence in Najib. What would Najib do?

Do nothing. He can only be removed when it can be shown that he has lost support of the majority in Parliament.

He will do the same thing as he normally does, burry his head in the sand and does the wise monkey routine- hear no evil, see no evil and speak no evil. He will pay those dissenters money. That’s UMNO’s weakness.

The 1000-strong supporters who gathered at the sate UMNO building in Alor star, is merely doing a counter measure. They don’t have to waste their time. They are better off meeting their state assembly members and warn them if they don’t support MUkhriz, they will not elect them in the next elections.

The people asking Mukhriz to go and they must be state assembly members, will have to convene the state assembly and produce evidence that Mukhriz has lost the confidence of the majority in the state assembly. If they can produce that evidence, and the speaker announces that it is so, then the chief plotter will seek audience with the Kedah Sultan to ask for the dismissal of Mukhriz Mahathir.

Or, the chief plotter can secure signed petitions of those who want Mukhriz out, gather the signed documents and go before the king. If the King is satisfied as in the Perak case many years ago, that Mukhriz son of Mahathir has lost it, then without even calling for the SA to convene can consent to the removal of Mukhriz.

If Mukhriz wants to stay in power as MB, what can he do? Up the ante on Najib.

He and a few others team up with people from the opposition (ignore who they are) and form a new state government. He will then produce evidence that he and others command the majority in the SA. After he becomes MB on a coalition ticket, do a purge. Appoint new excos and provide allocations.

Mukriz remains as MB on a coalition and at the same time strike at Najib. Najib will lose Kedah.

No one in their right thinking frame of mind would ever believe that what’s happening to Kedah now had no blessings from Najib. Nothing moves in a heavily patronized UMNO without the nod from the Commandeer-in Chief.  The stone thrower hides his hands behind his back. 

Everyone knows who he is. This latest amateurish move by Najib will only motivate Dr Mahathir.

Tweet

Read more...

Najibnomics- Does it Work?

As I walked into him room, before I could even sit down, the Oracle shot me a question. What is happening to our country? I thought I wanted to ask him the very same question.

And he further questioned- what’s delaying Mr X from doing what is the most important agenda now? - getting rid of Najib? It’s important to dismiss Najib because he has induced a climate of complicit silence. The UMNO men know the country is in a mess because of najib but no one is questioning. Because of the complicity, the entire cabinet must be replaced.

I could only managed an enfeebled- it’s coming.

In one particular meeting with The Oracle of Syed Putra aka Tun Daim Zainudin ,I asked him how does one manage an economy. He answers as a matter of factly that he eschews all economic theories. The most important tool is the application of good business sense. The business sense of running a country.

It’s the common thread among practical men and minds. Deng Xiaoping was famous for the "It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." Translated for our present purpose, it means, does this line of thinking and action works.  

Nearer to home, the late Lee Kuan Yew was recorded to have said, he doesn’t care too much about economic theories- Milton Friedman or Keynes. He was interested whether a line of thinking and action taken, works. Does it work? When he presses a bell, he wants to know, does it work?

I was privileged to have seen and read a manuscript of an upcoming book on Daim Zainudin written by an Australian setting out how he managed the economy when he was the finance minister. 

First Daim got a free hand in managing from Dr Mahathir. He then sets on applying the principle of living within one’s means. Read: its practical to have separate people be the PM and the FM.

He cuts down expenditure. He cuts salaries of ministers, reduced traveling and entertainment. Admittedly he says, that was more of a show so that people start thinking the government is serious in wanting to cut down spending. Budgets were reduced causing unhappiness among UMNO leaders who saw projects as a means to skim from the cookie jar.

The main issue now is managing the economy. This is where Najib has failed. Take any measure of an economy. Our reserves are low. The Ringgit is falling. The price of commodities is low. The cost of living is high. The rate of inflation is suspicious. Employment is decreasing as industries have to cut back. The price of oil on which we depend heavily on revenue is below USD30. 

The country is calamitously paced. It’s placed that way because of inept management. It is this way because the leader of the country is inept. The umno people ae consorting with a weak leader and his leadership

Of course by good business sense, he means the sum total of experience and learning that allow a person to make considered judgement quickly. In that sense, the current PM doesn’t seem to have any. He merely plods along.

There are growing suspicions he says that someone must be doing the thinking for Najib. Najib can’t do complex thinking. To me that is an admission that Najib does not do serious thinking. The most recent being the introduction of a National Security council Act. An act that actually transfers the power of declaring emergency from the Agong to the PM.

It’s out of Najib's character. Somebody else must be doing the thinking for Najib. Najib is too soft to carry out the chop chop job. He came on as PM promising to retire some characters from the cabinet. He hasn’t done what he said he wanted to do. Judging from that, there is no way Najib thought about the NSC Act.  

As an aside, its rumoured that there will be a cabinet reshuffle soon. It will involve Zahid Hamidi because Zahid is seen to becoming more powerful. Suddenly Najib realises that Zahid is more dangerous than contented looking Muhyidin.

Najib has successfully pushed through the Act simply because his government has the numbers. He has 134 MPs against 88 of the opposition. He forgets that his government only got 47% of the popular votes. He is accountable to the people. And as long as the people can be hoodwinked into thinking that najib acts out in the best interest of the country, he is safe. But that kind of thinking is quickly dissipating.

Has he managed the Malay economy well?

In 2012, the average monthly household income of the top 20% bumiputera was RM10,666. The corresponding monthly income of the bottom 40% was 1686.

The absolute difference was RM8980.

In 2014, the average monthly income of the top 20% was RM 12,630. The income of the bottom 40% was RM2367.

 The absolute difference was RM10, 263.

In absolute terms, the income gap has increased. It has widened from M8980 to RM10,263. The income of the b40 has increased by RM681 while the t20 has increased by RM1964.

The bottom 40% would have loved to have his income increased by RM1964 instead of RM681. This tells us, absolute numbers are preferred.  A 10% increase on RM1 is 10sen. A 5% increase on 100 is RM5. The ordinary man with the common wisdom would prefer to get RM5 to 10 sen. A high percentage increase on a low base is less desirable than a low percentage increase on a bigger base.

This is what happens if one looks at the figures produced by the epu. The percentage increase of the top 20% is very much lower (18%) compared to the percentage increase of the bottom 40 %( 40%). The government will say- look fellas, the average income of the bottom 40% has increased by 40%.  How much is that? RM681. And by how much has the average income of the top 20% increased? By RM1964.

But the people who considers the opposition’s criticisms of this state of affairs as being just another stick to wallop the government will say, be satisfied with the glad tidings we have brought about. Last time you had no roads, we built them. Last time you had no bridges, we built them. Last time you had no electricity, water, public amenities, and public transport. Now you have them. Rejoice. This is a just world.

It’s not just. With widening income disparities come widening gain of opportunities for the richer. It reflects the working of policies that favour the selected few and prejudices the many.  

Since 1970, the rich has always gained more in absolute terms. If we remember 1970, was the year we implemented the New Economic policy. The policy was effectively translated into choosing winners among the Malays. Selected Malays were given preferential treatment while the common Malay has only to satisfy himself with improved education, housing, general wellbeing and so forth.

These are appreciated of course but can only be considered as being the product and outcome of a dutiful government. They have to apply the revenue they collected in the form of taxes and give back to the people.

The selection of winners was expected to produce another positive externality- a benefit not asked and paid for. The positive externality is the trickle down effects. Those made rich will help out those left behind in the race. Rich people reinvested their income. This help create jobs and opportunities for others who did not make it.

The record in Malaysia has been dismal. Not only a large proportion of beneficiaries from NEP did nor reinvest or create jobs and business opportunities, they sold the equities they got on the cheap. They cashed out to enjoy the benefits of being rich. Hence out of the R54 billion worth of equities, RM52 billion were sold. Those rich people upstairs did not help the people downstairs.

Tweet

Read more...

Remembering and Emulating Tun Razak.

There are many ways to remember Tun Razak’s legacy. The choice is up to us. A few days back, the government celebrated the 40th anniversary of Tun Razak’s passing.

What is so special about celebrating the passing of this great leader after 40 years is anybody’s guess. I suspect, its all because of politics. Najib's politics that is. 
In the past, as I remember it, Tun Razak’s remembrance day was a low key affair. Tahlil would be performed. Prayers would be offered. This year it was special.

This time, the organisers wanted to do a commemorative conference. It must have been expensive. They even bought air time on the History Chanel. The organisers wanted to do an upbeat remembrance day celebrating the life of this great man. We are reminded of his humility, frugality, and his upright democratic principles.

A crucial democratic principle is accountability. Otherwise, this country will become a banana republic ruled by a kleptocracy. Only thieves do not account for their conduct.

Then there was the politics of Tun Razak. Others have written and commented on that. Tun Razak was PM for Malaysians. All of us.To the Malays, Tun Razak may have his personal foibles; but he never trampled Malay interests. People can accept unchallenged that Tun Razak's goodness far outweigh his weaknesses. Najib can never measure up to that.

I thought it was purely a family affair in remembering Tun Razak. Nobody will quarrel with that- the issues of a great man doing their devotional obligation to remember a great father. Legions of people from Pahang including I, have only the fondest and deferential memory of Tun Razak.The image of Tun Razak walking on a log bridge in Kampung Penor Pekan is forever etched indelibly in my mind.

Regrettably I was wrong on Najib’s motive. Just as he is saying don’t believe accusations (read the opposition’s take of things) that are politically motivated, I will tell people never to believe Najib’s politically charged statements.

Why should people disbelieve when the opposition states somethings, but believe whatever the Najib government says? Najib and his government has not been able to tell it straight.

If Najib confers on himself and his government that quality called believability, the same should be given to the opposition. Either you believe all or you disbelieve all. This simple principle should be understood by even Najib.

PM Najib Razak did not waste the opportunity to remind the nation his link to his biological father and by virtue of that, the hope that people will think of him as constituting the highest leadership material.

I am very sorry to not accept that subtle trick. This time around, even Tun Razak’s name cannot save Najib.

PM Najib said his father did not wish him to become a politician. I heard a different version as to why Tun Razak did not want Najib to become a politician. Sanusi Junid will be able to tell us more.

Our prayers still go to Tun Razak. At the time of his death, the UMNO general Assembly was growing critical of his leadership. Dark tales were beginning to emerge. Out of reverence and deference to the departed, we shall not dwell on those developments then. There are many people who tell me that God loves Tun Razak and recalled him from this earth.

Which brings us to PM Najib; no amount of pious reference to Tun Razak can excuse Najib for his dreadful conduct since becoming the PM in 2009. If PM Najib says he measures himself against the standards set by Tun Razak, people will ask, where is the humility, where is the frugality, the propriety, where is the accountability and where is the principled politics?

Does anyone notice that some luminaries associated with Tun Razak were absent or left out? I heard Hishamudin Hussein delivering a speech. Other than being nephew to Tun Rahah, Hisham’s knowledge about Tun Razak is as good as any man in the street. More are qualified to tell the story of Tun Razak.

40 years ago, Hishamudin was but a boy then, more playful as to understand what Tun Razak did. Nobody places a high premium on the mumblings of Hishamudin a few days ago. He was probably 14-15 years olds then.

Musa Hitam was noticeably left out from this 40^th anniversary of Tun Razak’s death. Possibly this was because Musa Hitam has asked Najib to resign. I am told by a reliable source, Musa’s name was on the list of speakers, but Najib crossed out his name.

And the biggest bete noir? Dr Mahathir was also not invited even though Dr Mahathir has always admitted that he owed a lot to Tun Razak. This year, only those who have not clashed with Najib and have only good things to say about him, were invited.

Many have passed on anyway, and so, the kampong men with the ‘common wisdom’ and folksy stories this year, are nowhere to be seen.

Soon, there will be no one left who will attest to the goodness of Tun Razak. Tun Razak’s generation in Pekan has also disappeared. The younger generation do not know Tun Razak.

They now know the following:-

Now they know of the hypocrisy of quarreling with the Chinese but privately doing business with them. They now know of 1MDB, the RM2.6 billion and other financial scandals. They know of his extravagances, they now know of rising costs of living, they now know of GST.

The father built up Felda, the son is dismembering it. Felda assets are now manhandled with wanton abandon.

The price of oil palm has fallen. The price of rubber has fallen. The price of rubber wood has also fallen. Felda settlers owe money to Felda. Those who had taken loans to buy FGV shares are paying RM50 a month or RM600 a year. In 2014, FGV declared a dividend of 0.04 to a unit of share. The felda settlers get around RM32 dividend. The pay RM600 a year and got RM32 a year.

What can we say further?

A few months back, the UMNO division head of Raub made a much noised about visit to Felda Lembah Klau Dam in Raub. For what purpose we don’t know. Everyone now knows the dammed up area into which flow 13 rivers, will serve as the reservoir channelling water to Selangor into the Langat 2 facility. The water will not be available to Raub dwellers. So why did he visit the area?

Probably on a mission to discover ways to transport some 100 over heads of cattle stranded on an island in the huge man-made lake.

No felda settlers who have boats wanted to ferry him into the lake. In the end he had to call the Fire department to bring a boat and ferry him around.  That’s how much people like UMNO now.

But the other thing I want to tell readers is that some 1300 acres of Felda settlers land were reclaimed by the government. I am made to understand that the UMNO division head recommended the 1300 acre fruit bearing land to be contracted out to a Bumiputera friend.  Who else? Every action by UMNO is for religion, race and Country.

The Bumiputera of course speedily sub-contracted the 1300 acres to a Chinese businessman from Bentong.

So every day, the felda settlers watch white-eyed as lorry after lorry comes in and out transporting harvested fruits. As the Malay is wont to say, puteh mata tengok lori keluar masuk.

That is what UMNO does to the Malays. It has now become an axiom; behind every successful UMNO man, there must be a Chinaman.

Tweet

Read more...