The Voice of One Million Marchers.

I don’t see the reason why UMNO people and the people at Bank Islam need to pull their hair and scratch their faces over the findings of Bank Islam’s chief economist. He has probably reached the conclusions he did after scouring the developments on the ground. Plus, he is stating the obvious.

On the 30^th October last year, I wrote an article with the title Ini Kalilah. At that time I said, PR has already got 110 seats in the peninsula. Now, if my estimate that PR can win another 28 seats from East Malaysia, PR will be getting 138 seats leaving UMNO/BN with 84 seats. The 84 will come mainly from UMNO (including UMNO Sabah) and the 20 seats from Taib Mahmud’s 20 PBB seats.

Let’s picture another horrific scenario.  What if Taib Mahmud for some selfish reasons and for reasons of self-preservation decides to throw his lot with the new ship and abandon UMNO?

PR will get 20 more seats bringing its total to 158 seats. UMNO and whatever remains of the BN party will be having only 64 seats. That’s the worse scenario that UMNO finds itself in. that number will render UMNO into a semi-comatose condition.

The response from the establishment and from UMNO quarters simply do not matter anymore. To me the most important point is, it does not alter the fact that the UMNO/BN government is going to fall. My own feeling is, we will see an exact reversal of fortunes- BN will end up with not more than 90 seats, and PR will get around 132 seats. Najib will retire as PM and the new leader of the opposition will be MUhyidin where he will try very hard to revive a semi-comatose UMNO.

Can UMNO be saved if somehow mysterious forces at work manage to evict tenant Najib from Putrajaya? Hello- the struggle by PR is not about replacing Najib. We want to replace UMNO as the government. The whole idea of battling UMNO is not to see its leadership changed. That is not our concern; the whole idea is to have UMNO/BN replaced as the legitimate government with a government of PR partnership. We will not even entertain a scenario where Muhyidn replaces Najib as PM for such a scenario bodes ill for the country. As the Malays say, Muhyidin is 2x5, 5x2 in comparison to Najib. How can a man molded and shaped by UMNO’s value system and culture be able to improve UMNO?

Since much interest has been revived because of the conclusions reached by Bank Islam’s economist, I thought it fitting to reprise my article on the outcome of GE13.

At the time of writing, I was not sure about conditions in Sabah and Sarawak. In Sabah, it is now becoming clearer that the Chinese and Kadazans are coming together to form a strategic alliance. Their target is to have a non-Muslim CM as they form the majority grouping in the state. Only once they have supported a Muslim CM during Tun Datu Mustafa. They have no reasons to do so anymore since they now are aware they can secure the office for themselves rather than allowing the minority Muslim grouping under UMNO manipulate the powerful position of CM.

My article on the 30^th of October 2012 read as follows:-

T. Adnan Mansor is the UMNO secretary General. What’s the T for?  If memory serves me sufficiently, a certain reptilian with a prefix T has become extinct. The same fate awaits T Adnan’s party come the next GE.

Clearly he is relishing his role as the court jester in Najib’s court. He comes up with the most bizarre of claims when the King is depressed. Judging from the high frequency of incredible claims issuing forth from the office of this chief court jester, the king must be suffering from frequent bouts of depression.

He says BN expects to win more than the 140 federal seats it took in the Elections of 2008. He is quoting trusted Government sources. Ah ha. Now, pray tell- can government sources tell us otherwise- that BN will lose? That would be doing an Anwar Blackeye- a self-inflicted wound. What exactly are government sources? Intelligence report? Reports from Kemas, Jasa or from something originating from Rais Yatim?  If from Rais Yatim- that would be understandable. He is never known to be numeric.

Despite admitting to the possibility of losing 6 seats in Sabah and 7 seats in Sarawak, BN says it can get more than 140 parliamentary seats?

If BN loses 13 seats in East Malaysia, PR will be getting 122 seats to BN’s 22. How so? Because in Peninsula Malaysia, PR is set to win 109 seats.  With Ibrahim Menudin set to win in Labuan, PR has 110 seats already.

What T Adnan dares not reveal is that, BN can lose up to 12 seats in Sabah and up to 13 seats in Sarawak, making a total loss of 25 seats from the East Malaysian states.

Now sit back and enjoy the horror story of BN being reduced to a party with 87 seats.  Not possible? Let’s educate T Adnan with some mathematics.

Group 1: The Northern States.

no	state	PR	BN	Total
1	Perlis	1	2	3
2	Penang	12	2	14
3	Kedah	12	3	15
4	Perak	17	7	24
		42	14	56

Look at the 4 northern states. Out of 56 seats, PR wins 42 and BN wins 14.

Group 2: the west coast states.

	State	PR	BN	total
5	Selangor	20	2	22
6	Negeri Sembilan	4	4	8
7	Melaka	2	3	5
8	Johor	9	17	26
		35	26	61

PR wins the west coast states with 35 seats to BN’s 26.

Group 3: The East Coast States.

no	state	PR	BN	TOTAL
9	Kelantan	13	1	14
10	Terengganu	4	4	8
11	Pahang	5	9	14
		22	14	36

Out of the 36 parliamentary seats in the East Coast states, PR can win 22 to BN 14.

The New Territories.

no	constituency	PR	BN	TOTAL
1	WP	10	1	11
2	Putrajaya	0	1	1
3	Labuan	1	0	1
		11	2	13

PR has already won 110 seats not including those from Sabah and Sarawak. Like the Sabahans say- ini kalilah!

Ini Kalilah is heard loudly across the whole country.

What is PR wins 25 seats from East Malaysia? 12 from Sabah and 13 from Sarawak? what if, just as when the chips are falling on the night of the election results, Taib Mahmud and his 20 PBB parliamentarians say selamat tingal Najib? The chairman of the EC need not stay up the night. He should go home pack his bags and pray he hasn’t committed any irregularities while in office.