Rakyat diKemudiankan, Pencapaian hanya Ucapan

The above was the scene of the Himpunan Rakyat in Kota Bharu. If it were an event hosted by UMNO, the papers will say 100,000 attended the event. Because it is an event held by PR, the papers say 20,000 attended. One cannot dispute the stand taken by a habitual liar.  It’s a congenital affliction.

It will then do what it is accustomed to: - (1) instill fear in the hearts and minds of Malaysia thereby exposing its utter irresponsibility. (2) Pay more and more money- bribe all around.

After 55 years of rule, UMNO has not been able to structure its rule on a united Malaysian race sharing the same ideals and ideas. Instead it has always ruled by playing on the inherent fears and distrust among the various Malaysian races. UMMO is the promoter of divisiveness because that suits them and serves its overriding objective- to stay in power.

All right thinking Malaysians must vote out people like the pea-brained Jamil Khir. He is just an overrated ustaz who got the job as military chaplain and went up the ranks because they were no other people in that department. He cites the massacre of Palestinians by the Israelis as object lessons for Muslims in Malaysia. Is he suggesting that if PR takes over, then Muslims will be massacred? 

Excuse me, Ustaz- we are only removing the UMNO overburden. The structures of government will remain intact and it’s not like, when UMNO is not around, other people cannot manage the country better. So I urge my fellow Malaysians let us kick out UMNO lock stock and barrel.

You have already seen the worms coming out of the woodwork. People are warned about the coming dominance of DAP should the PR come into power. The holy men of UMNO say that PAS needs the approval of DAP to implement hudud. It seems the hudud issue is being spoken more by UMNO and MCA. The buffoon of the political secretary of the PM who hails from Kelantan says the DAP has no respect for PAS.

This is the major problem with UMNO. It thinks those Malay leaders in PAS and PKR are as stupid as them. But then because only the riffraff remain in UMNO, the ancient Chinese saying must be true: - A base person often thinks of a man of honor as mean as himself. Since UMNO is base, it thinks others beside them are the same base people.

UMNO thinks other people are not more capable than them. So what it will it say? UMNO will tell of the story of a Malaysia where Malay interests are threatened. It will cite the example of NIzar whom they alleged became a stooge to DAP leaders. It hides the true facts from the Malays. During the 11 months, Nizar was Perak MB, the interests of Malays were affirmed not whittled away.

Nizar approved the issue of 8750acres of land; 7500 acres for Malays and 1250 for non-Malays. He approved 102,000 housing lots for Malays and 47,000 lots for non-Malays. The Malay gets a lot measuring 3200 square feet; the non-Malays got 1125 square feet. The DAP went along with his decision.

The fact is PR operates on a different structure. It structures it governance on the rule of law, justice and fairness and an inherent sense of fairplay.  

Because UMNO has no answers to give and explain, it will continue to give out large sums of money believing that money sorts out everything and washes away all its sins. It treats whatever money and largesse that it has given out as something of a godsend for which the people must feel thankful.

So UMNO hopes the final installment of the RM15, 000- bribe to Felda settlers will make the settlers forget that the FGV price is going to hit rock bottom and will likely remain there for a long time. It thinks RM15000 bribe will make the settlers forget that they have mortgaged all the assets belonging to Felda Holdings and that all their wealth residing in physical assets are now converted into paper assets. The share slip says it’s now worth RM4.60 giving the settler a `handsome’ profit of RM 40 for their 800 shares.

It is incredible to hear and read that some people insist that Felda settlers still get their durian runtuh. How much actually does a settler get? With a margin of 5 sen per unit of share, profit margin for the 91.2 million shares is RM4,560,000. Divided by 112,635 , each settler has a margin of RM40 per head.

Now does the RM40 constitute a durian runtuh or windfall? If the settler uses his own money to pay RM3640 to purchase the 800 shares, the return of his investment is only 1%. That if he sells his stock now. If the premium dips below RM 40, his return on his investment is lower than 1%. What if he had borrowed the RM 3600? He would have to pay RM200 processing fee which puts him immediately at a RM160 loss. What if he does not pay anything because Najib has instructed Felda which got almost RM6billion to finance the settlers purchase? The settler who gets finance from Felda needs to make a monthly payment of RM50 only. His loss would then depend on how long he holds the stock. If he holds for 3 months, his financial cost is RM150. If the premium after 3 months is still RM40, he makes a loss of RM 110.

So where is the windfall? So where is the durian runtuh? It does not come from the earnings of the FGV shares. The FGV is a giant Ponzi scheme dreamt of by some consultants to make stock market players rich.

If the duruan runtuh does not come from business transactions, where does it come from? It comes in the forms of cash handouts which are unearned. If not earned, it is just a bribe. A bribe by any other name is still a bribe. The RM15000 per felda family broken up into 3 installments is an advance bribe. The raya bonus is money taken from settlers’ contribution in any case.

Let us see how much durian runtuh the felda settler gets. Let us say the government gives a total of RM20, 000 per felda family( R15,000 plus all the small change) . The government gives out RM20, 000 x 112,635= 2.252 billion. That works out to be around 23% of the RM10 billion raised.  Who will pay for this? Let us say, Felda pays 60% of the amount due- RM1.35 billion. Felda is left with RM4.65 billion. It owes EPF RM 3 billion. It can restructure the loan and pays perhaps RM 1 billion. It has RM3.65 billion.

It will have to manage this RM 3.65 billion to take care of the felda settlers and employees. Since now it has not got any revenue earning asset other than FGV, where will get money to finance its operations? Felda needs RM3 billion a year to run the more than 50 Felda settlements. It still holds 1.496 billion shares from the enlarged capital of 3.684 billion having placed out only 60% of the FGV shares for the public. Its main earnings now will be its returns on the shares it has- 1.496 billion. At RM 4.55 per share- Felda’s shares in hand are worth RM6.81billion.  If it sells the entire stock at 4.60, it will get RM6.88 billion.

The main source of revenue now will be FGV hoping FGV will be well managed, run its business operations efficiently and give good returns per share. That will depend on the dividends declared by FGV each year.  

There must be something fundamentally wrong in the government’s economic thinking. Handing over a revenue earning asset to a company with miserable record, hoping things will turn out for the better. This is no different from the will-o'-the-wisp thinking.