Monday, 31 May 2010
Ibrahim Ali is my hero
Sunday, 30 May 2010
Subsidy-the Axe Man cometh!
Government, by definition, is that organization which has a monopoly on the legitimate initiation of force within a geographic area. Inherently, it must use force and the threat of force to impose its rules on others, no matter how these rules were derived.
Why would I begin this essay with the above foreboding paragraph? Simply because I think, this whole lab about subsidy rationalisation as a means to lower our perennial deficits is a veiled threat of force to impose new rules on us.
Who among us in particular? On the most vulnerable group- the poor and needy is the answer.
PM Najib has to take a serious look on this subsidy issue. What is the most important legacy of his father, the 2nd PM? Championing the cause of the poor is the likeliest answer. He was minister in charge of rural development. It wasn't a glamorous ministry, but development for the poor was close to his heart. He formed FELDA in the year Sakmongkol was born in 1956. To give land (wealth creating asset to the poor and disenfranchised.
Where is Idris Jala leading us? Cutting the 'real subsidies' going to the poor. Not exactly respecting the legacy of Tun Razak is it? But then, what does Idris "Al Dunlap' Jala knows? We shall be coming out with what he did at MAS. Coming soon. Khawp khun, Danke, Nandri , Repoman!
Does he know Tun Razak at all? Don't bother what the experts say. Ignore what Ramon Navaratnam says. Cut the government projects going to Sunway group and let's see whether he can sing Jangli Jangli Kahay still. Is cutting subsidies on the top of the priority list of cutting government deficits? Reduce by half the bloated and quality challenged civil service would be a better option.
Let's be clear who the recipients of government subsidies are. Government financial aid going to ordinary people is often really transfer payment, which is non compensatory. Meaning, the government gives them money without being compensated with anything from the recipients. Government financial aids going to businesses and industries, soft loans, etc- these are the real subsidies which should be compensatory.
The businesses and industries assisted by all sorts of subsidies ought to give us back in the form of better goods and services at a cheaper rate. IPPs get lots of subsidies, tax incentives and all that, including that kitchen sink, why aren't we getting cheaper electricity tariffs? Why do I get that I- owe -them -a -living service from the under qualified civil servant?
Now, which one is the government going to take away?
Somebody must be bonkers if they believed that selling off assets and booking them in and accordingly showing profits, is ONE brilliant move to bring MAS into the black once again. And fuel hedging? Not exactly rocket science. The executive in charge of budget airline Air Asia knows fuel hedging is one of the ways to reduce cost and therefore increase operational profitability. So doing fuel hedging is not a NOVELTY nor a big deal. If Jala who comes from Shell doesn't dabble in something he is familiar with, then maybe he should return to Sarawak to plant Bario rice.
The record at MAS by this minister- achieved by the above methods cannot be taken to impute extraordinary prowess at turning around things. We think he can do the same with our deficits by way of attacking subsidies which he fancies as the jugular? Nah- I don't think so.
So, the government has incurred deficits all the time. Is going after subsidies or more correctly, going after transfer payments (welfare, subsidies on food, diesel, sugar, and education) is the better line of attack to reduce our deficits?
What about wasteful spending?
The government has just owned up to the gravity of our deficits, we going bankrupt and all that yet at the same, we hear this shrill voice from Johor, insisting the crooked bridge must be built. What is so special about building this crooked bridge and must it be crooked? Also, didn't we hear just last week how everyone was singing praises at Malaysia being in the most competitive list? How do you reconcile this and the doomsday warning given by this Nostradamus from the land of the Hornbill?
We must be careful when we talk about subsidy? How much are pure subsidies and how much is transfer income? By treating it as one homogenous economic element, Jala is going to punish those who receive transfer incomes with those who receive subsidies. Differentiate the two. I am sure; this ability to differentiate these two wasn't taught at Shell.
Transfers which are straight income supplements need to be distinguished from subsidies. An unconditional transfer to an individual would augment his income and would be distributed over the entire range of his expenditures.
A subsidy however refers to a specific good, the relative price of which has been lowered because of the subsidy with a view to changing the consumption/ allocation decisions in favour of the subsidised goods. Even when subsidy is hundred percent, i.e. the good is supplied free of cost, it should be distinguished from an income-transfer (of an equivalent amount) which need not be spent exclusively on the subsidised good.
I can't put it any simpler- but then I am talking to the former boss of MAS and a former exec of Shell.
Transfers may be preferred to subsidies on the ground that any given expenditure of State funds will increase welfare more if it is given as an income-transfer rather than via subsidising the price of some commodities, and transfer payments can be better targeted at a specific income groups as compared to free or subsidised goods.
But the axe man came and bundled everything as subsidies. Subsidies in the form of soft loans, financial aid to IPPS-these ought to be removed immediately. But subsidies going to the poor? Only if PM Najib has a death wish. Anyone watches Charles Bronson movies anymore?
What is the primary objective of the government in saying that in 19 years, this country will go bankrupt? The deficit is so big that it has reached almost half of our GDP? Is this an overnight phenomenon? We didn't get to the stage of huge public debt overnight. It's the result of years of negligent and undisciplined spending like nobody's business.
The thing is, this yawning gap occurred under the watch of the BN government. In that sense this huge public debt is the outcome of the economic policies of the BN government. This Idris Jala maybe a loose cannon after all. I hope PM Najib must now realize that he needs to place people schooled in politics. Sure, in Shell they teach you to be audacious and the executive is always eager to make slides and PowerPoint presentations with much fanfare so that his immediate boss or the departmental bosses notice you. You operate on a different basis.
In politics, what you do, notwithstanding the brouhaha, have political ramifications. Failure is a lonely orphan, success has got many fathers. Right now, Idris Jala may be feeling orphaned.
What proportion do subsidy payments make up in the whole deficit budget?
You see- the problem with subsidies- it's the easiest economic parameter to attack. Subsidies are received by corporations and businesses and the most vulnerable groups in society- the poor and needy. Corporations and businesses especially those who have received favorable loan terms, have strong and vociferous representation. Navaratnam can speak on behalf of big business, chief economists can speak on behalf of the banks etc.
But what about the vulnerable groups? The poor and needy? Who represent them? Maybe Walla. Maybe Sakmongkol. Maybe Wenger. Maybe Donplaypuks.
When I was young, I remember the government of the day at that time ran austerity campaigns. They didn't cut back on subsides to the poor. Of course at that time, government did not give out dirt cheap loans to selected businesses and businessmen nor spent lavishly on unnecessary things. They took the road of persuading the people to go on austerity drive. Government stopped recruiting workers. The civil service remained manageable unlike now where it has reached 1.2 million in number. Practically 1 out of 25 Malaysian is a government servant. One public servant servicing 25 people would have given us sterling service. But what we get is arrogant and officious service blind to the fact, they, the majority of civil servants live off our money.
What is the primary objective of cutting subsidies- that portion of government expenditure that goes to selected sectors and recipients? If the subsidies go to selected producers of goods and services- what they offer us should be cheaper. Recipients who receive subsidies without offering the economy anything back, will experience increase in disposable income and spend it accordingly over a broad range of expenditure.
There are 2 groups who receive subsides. Producers of goods and services- IPPs, Infrastructure contractors, businesses given almost interest free loans from the government. This is one group. The other group include the recipients of what is more correctly termed as transfer incomes.
So when Idris Jala was telling is that what the government spent last year is equivalent to RM 12,900 per head, I am not sure whether this is a quantum divided by the whole population of Malaysia or recipients of subsidies only.
Where will the cuts come from? My main objection to this subsidy rationalization is, the cuts are directed at the most vulnerable group of all- the poor and low income earners who are poorly represented in any discussions involving them. Who represented the poor on the panel discussion? CAP? The man from Khazanah? Tony Pua? Idris Jala? The Royal blood?
Friday, 28 May 2010
Cutting subsidy- 1
Thursday, 27 May 2010
MIC and BN
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
The building brick of society.
TIDAKKAH KITA MERASA BIMBANG, GUNDAH DAN GELISAH, APABILA MENDENGAR
begitu ramai yang membuang atau membunuh anak, kisah cerai berai menjadi-jadi, anggota Parlimen, sebagai penggubal undang-undang, yang sepatutnya menjadi contoh dan teladan, tersenyum lebar menerima hukuman penjara, kerana berpoligami,
tanpa mengikut undang-undang; pemimpin terus merebut jawatan tertinggi dalam parti walau pun terdedah dengan skandal seksnya,
pemimpin parti dari satu agama yang mempunyai dua orang isteri dari dua agama yang berbeza,
pemimpin yang mengharapkan kesalahannya, jika terbukti nanti, terampun dengan popularitinya,
pemimpin yang terus mempertahankan kedudukannya sebagai pemimpin walaupun disahkan mengamalkan rasuah politik,
dan akhir-akhir ini kita terbaca dalam Mingguan Warta Perdana seorang isteri Menteri menyerang seorang pelakon yang jelita. Sudah tentu keluarga yang terlibat berada dalam sengsara.
Mampukah mereka yang keluarganya dalam sengsara mengamankan negara, dan membahagiakan rakyat jelata?
Kita juga letih mendengar nasihat dari mereka yang pernah menjadi pemimpin, yang mengecewakan, tidak berhenti-henti turut memberi nasihat dalam berbagai perkara pula. Bolehkah, sebagai rakyat, kita katakan kepada mereka, dalam bahasa yang mereka mudah faham - 'please leave us alone.'
Tuesday, 25 May 2010
The son rises? Sets?
Monday, 24 May 2010
Sime Darby Code
We have a non functioning board of directors. We also have a management committee that misleads the board.
I read in the Edge recently the thinking that asking the board to resign is NOT going to sort out Sime Darby's recent financial mess. I think otherwise. It should be made to resign so that an impartial and unfettered inquiry can be made into the losses. Its removal or resignation helps to unravel the Sime mess in the sense that it removes the need to be less thorough and less severe. The existence of a board and close proximity with board members may be a cause of restrained investigation. Better to remove any fetters that could hinder an honest thorough, rigorous and stringent investigation.
Would the young man with that formidable accounting degree be self assuring enough to ask tough questions to the Tan Sris, Dato's and the Sime Tun?
The agenda of uncovering this mess requires absolute thoroughness and ruthless forensic accounting, the two requirements that could be hampered by the existence of the same board under whose supervision, the rogue management carried out its misdeeds.
The existence of a board of directors seen to be ineffective and part of the whole mess should not fetter any impartial inquiry into the fiasco. At the very least they should stand down until investigations reveal their non complicity and ignorance. If there is no conspiracy, then it was complete ignorance. And in law, we cant plead ignorance of the law as an excuse for doing or not doing what we did.
Indeed as a redemption measure, the board should make haste in calling an independent inquiry team to look into this mess.
By his own admission, Tun Musa Hitam said:-
"Semua laporan yang sepatutnya (sampai), tidak sampai kepada pihak Lembaga Pengarah. Kalau ada pun, ia tidak memberi gambaran sebenar. Kami tidak mempunyai laluan untuk maklumat sebenar."
The second part is intriguing. If the reports were presented to the board, at what point in time did the board realise that the information given were misleading? Was it after the mess became public knowledge? Saying so, does not absolve the board.
That places the board in the same category as the ignorant public. The public can be excused but not the board- because the board is an involved and interested party. It can't be conferred the same leniency as the uninvolved public. You are liable for the behaviour of those over whom you exercise duty.
How does the board establish the veracity of the information given? That could only suggest that the board has a possible source channelling the real information to counter the misinformation given. Why was this source act so belatedly? If it does, then its actions (the source) can be conspiratorial.
Musa' statement taken as a whole also mean, that beside the board of directors, the management committee is also responsible and therefore liable for its actions. The million dollar question then is why the punished should be confined to Zubir Murshid only. The responsibility and liability should go down the entire line of decision makers involved in the business deals.
The overall strategy is to isolate the gangrenous parts lest they infect the whole body.
How extensive is the rot? If every level of Sime's management bears the fingerprints of Zubir's kind of management, then Sime Darby and Malaysia are looking at a bigger catastrophe in the making. If Zubir's style of management is characterised most of all by a cloak and dagger approach, the current Sime Darby's financial mess is just the tip of the iceberg. If the original merger between Sime Darby, Golden Hope and Guthrie was kept secret by Zubir and his collaborators , it seems likely that the current 'costs overruns' are also kept secret until the very end. Tun Musa's admission that the board is kept in the dark or was fed with false information, confirms that this is the management style of Zubir and his coterie of like minded managers.
If that is so, removing Zubir and having him replaced by a person moulded in the same management philosophy, isn't going to save Sime Darby. The person currently standing in for Zubir is one such person. Indeed Azhar and Zubir and another one Zarif( the person in charge of foreign labour) are known within Sime Darby as the 3 Abduls. They all came from the same division- Sime Tyres. And there's nothing comical about how these 3 are running Sime Darby.
This strengthens the reasons to look at the other operations of the Sime Darby group. Tun Musa appears to pre-empt any moves to look into Sime's other business operations when he stated that the problems are confined only to the E&U division. But because the overall style of management at Sime is dictated by Zubir and gang, and problems can occur, it doesn't hurt to look into Sime's other businesses.
For example, now is the right time to start looking also on how the plantations division are managed. Why do we need to? Because the public is made to believe that the losses incurred by the Energy and Utilities division can be cushioned by the healthy earnings from the plantations division. The losses can still be absorbed and Sime as a whole can still remain profitable.
That belief can only be supported IF the plantations division continue to be profitable. Its profitability depends on good management and productivity. These two things are fast depleting. As we are aware, the turnover rate of experienced managers within the plantation division is very high. Good managers are leaving the division.
As a result productivity is adversely affected. In Sime's estates a lot of palm fruits remain unharvested because of chronic labour shortage. Losses are mounting. If fruits are unharvested, that translates into millions ringgit losses per month.
Sunday, 23 May 2010
Cracking the Sime Darby Code
Friday, 21 May 2010
Old and New UMNO- how the halves differ
Thursday, 20 May 2010
Thinking of UMNO-1
I fear I bring distressing news. UMNO is suffering a possible terminal illness. Things are not as good as they seem.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
Secret open bidding?
The title is an oxymoron. But strange things can happen in the Jungle of Politics.
Sibu- Money cant buy all
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
Sime Darby: Controls and Reporting.
Monday, 17 May 2010
Jaga Lah UMNO baik baik.
Sime Darby must do these
Oleh kerana Pengerusi dan seluroh ahli BOD ada peranan dan tanggungjawab didalam penyeliaan dan pemantauan terhadap perjalanan dan pentadbiran syarikat itu,mereka juga sepatutnya,dengan sukarela meletak jawatan.Jika mereka tidak bertindak demikian sudah tentunya mereka itu akan dikira sebagai orang yg tidak bermaruah,tidak ada harga diri,integriti dan tidak berperinsip.Mereka akan hilang kredebiliti dan status sebagai gentlemen.