D Day for Bukit Gantang.

I am stopping by at Kuala Kangsar to post this article. Then maybe I will do lunch by enjoying the famed Perak gulai tempoyak ikan patin. Let's see whether Perakians cook gulai tempoyak better than Pahang people.

Today the rakyat in Bukit Gantang will cast their votes. The outcome for this crucial by election will be decided by the 38 Pusat Mengundi and the 111 salurans. These are located within the 3 DUNs in Bukit Gantang.

1. Changkat Jering 11 voting centres
   
2. Kuala Sepetang 13
   
3. Trong/Terong 14.
   

I could see the 'hot' voting centres like SK Changkat Ibol and SRJKC Poay Eng in Kuala Sepetang. In Changkat Jering they are SK Jelutong and SK Changkat Jering while in Trong, the hotly contested voting centres are SK Padang Gajah and SJKRC Sungai Rotan.

What will be the deciding factors? What's happening to the saluran 1 and 2 consisting of mature adults?

I went around some of the above named voting centres and saw people coming out enthusiastically. I am under no illusions as to who these enthusiastic voters are going to vote. Most of those in cars stuck in traffic jams are Chinese. Their preferences were already decided.

In my mind the outcome of the elections will only go to BN if they can influence those voting in saluran 3, 4 and 5 which are made up generally of the younger generation and equally important, the Chinese voters.

Basically as I see it, the Chinese are inclined to vote for the PR. The younger generation on the whole is inclined to vote for PR.

Yesterday evening as I made my rounds in Kuala Sepetang and Changkat Jering, there were many young men distributing pamphlets. I pulled down my window and reached out to get some of the pamphlets. One is a pamphlet issued by Salahudin Ayub the PAS youth chief reaching out specifically to younger voters. The other is a pamphlet narrating a purported interview between a journalist and a PAS member of Bukit Gantang. That outlined the principles of PAS's struggle.

The integrity of these two pamphlets or even their accuracy is debatable. What attracted my interest though was the fact that these are distributed by young people who are normally associated as being disenchanted with politics. How is it possible that the younger generation such as these who are not necessarily card carrying members of PAS can now be converted to PR/PAS cause?

To me that can only indicate a monumental shift in emotional allegiance away from UMNO politics to anti UMNO politics. Perhaps they represent the disillusioned lumpen-proletarriat who can nevertheless be converted to a political cause promising them a future that seeks to correct whatever excesses, real and imagined associated with UMNO. This should be made into a humbling reminder to the UMNO leadership.

Unless the leadership can rally the younger generation who are playing a reverse role of influencing their parents, UMNO will lose this election. Hence I find it amusing a remark by a blogger friend that the under 40 represents only 30-40% of the electorate with the sublime implication that the younger set will not be a crucial determining factor.

Well, the facts culled from my own experience tell me that these young people, who are better educated and informed are now influencing their parents who to vote. So just imagine that if 40% of the 55,000 voters which is about 22,000 manage to persuade just 1 member of their family, the numbers who will vote against BN swell to 40,000.

In an earlier blog, I offered a non partisan observation saying the organisational competence and integrity of UMNO Bahagian Bukit Gantang is suspect. It is probably infected with internal dissension manifested in turn by a clear lack of determination and commitment to see UMNO win. This factor is another crucial determinant in this by elections.

Against this background and supplanted by my observations on the scene, my prediction for Bukit Gantang will be as follows; PAS will take the Kuala Sepetang and Changkat Jering DUNs while UMNO will marginally win Trong. The winner in this election will be the much maligned and ill treated NIzar.

The outcome has already been written in the stars.