Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Perilous in Perak


Perak has 24 parliamentary seats. In 2008, BN won 13 of those seats. Most of them were won on the slimmest of margins. So the argument goes, the opposition also won on slim margins. The counter argument is, the victory by the opposition was won on the courage of convictions while the victory of BN was won as a result of the erosion of confidence. These are 2 different things. One won as a result of convictions is hard to slip back while the one won as a result of erosion of convictions is extremely difficult to sustain.

PARLIAMENTARY SEAT
2008 SUPPORT
FOR PAKATAN
(%)
GE13 PROJECTED SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (%)
EXPECTED WINNER
1
GERIK
34
41
BN
2
LENGGONG
35
42
BN
3
LARUT
46
53
PR
4
PARIT BUNTAR
60
67
PR
5
BAGAN SERAI
53
60
PR
6
BUKIT GANTANG
50
56
PR
7
TAIPING
60
65
PR
8
PADANG RENGAS
44
52
PR
9
SUNGAI SIPUT
50
55
PR
10
TAMBUN
44
52
PR
11
IPOH TIMUR
69
75
PR
12
IPOH BARAT
65
72
PR
13
BATU GAJAH
71
75
PR
14
KUALA KANGSAR
45
51
PR
15
BERUAS
52
59
PR
16
PARIT
42
49
PR
17
KAMPAR
45
52
PR
18
GOPENG
56
62
PR
19
TAPAH
42
49
PR
20
PASIR SALAK
44
51
PR
21
LUMUT
45
53
PR
22
BAGAN DATOK
43
51
PR
23
TELOK INTAN
50
55
PR
24
TANJUNG MALIM
41
48
PR






Will the people of Perak forget that during the reign of Zamri, he has given out more land than Nizar did when the latter was MB? Many landless people who were without land titles and who have worked the land got it during Nizar’s stint as MB. What wasn’t told was that more Malays got their titles too during Nizar’s time.
During UMNO’s time the grant of land was the hijacked prerogative of UMNO divisional heads, UMNO reps and merciless Pengerusi JKKK. During Zamri’s time, more land was given to companies and cronies rather than people.
The people of Perak have never forgiven the manner in which a government of their choice has been usurped by UMNO though extra legal means. Whatever the court says, the general perception was, their government of choice was snatched away from them by dirty means.
The people of Perak are not oblivious to the rampant corruption of BN leaders. The laundry list of corruption is too long to be repeated here and indeed much has been revealed in the alternative media.
Will the Perak people be swayed with the oft repeated argument that, if PR takes over they will do the same things like what UMNO/BN does?
If UMNO assumes this, they must be thinking that Perak people are dullards and impervious to the injustices and corruption. UMNO assumes others are like them who are motivated by predatory instincts. No one can do any worse than UMNO does.
People can see that every Pakatan administration has scored better than all other BN administrations on almost every measure. Balancing the budget, achieving budget surpluses, increasing state revenues, carrying out people friendly programs. They do, while UMNO talks and talks. Doing and talking BS are like sky and earth.
With an allowance of 5% regain by UMNO and BN, PR should still have 7% reserve to win all but 2 of the parliamentary seats in Perak.
The possible outcome at GE13 after discounting 5% in favor of UMNO/BN as a results of deception, corruption, cheating etc.

SEAT
3% SWING
7% SWING


BN
PR
BN
PR
1
GERIK
1
0
1
0
2
LENGGONG
1
0
1
0
3
LARUT
0
1
0
1
4
PARIT BUNTAR
1
0
0
1
5
BAGAN SERAI
1
0
0
1
6
BUKIT GANTANG
0
1
0
1
7
TAIPING
0
1
0
1
8
PADANG RENGAS
1
0
0
1
9
SUNGAI SIPUT
0
1
0
1
10
TAMBUN
1
0
0
1
11
IPOH TIMUR
0
1
0
1
12
IPOH BARAT
0
1
0
1
13
BATU GAJAH
0
1
0
1
14
KUALA KANGSAR
0
1
0
1
15
BERUAS
0
1
0
1
16
PARIT
1
0
0
1
17
KAMPAR
0
1
0
1
18
GOPENG
0
1
0
1
19
TAPAH
0
1
0
1
20
PASIR SALAK
0
1
0
1
21
LUMUT
0
1
0
1
22
BAGAN DATOK
1
0
0
1
23
TELOK INTAN
0
1
0
1
24
TANJUNG MALIM
1
0
0
1

TOTAL
9
15
2
22



















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